Did Madeleine Simply Wander Off?
Surely no child just wanders off into the night?
Read http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-29205706 If this is correct, a 4-year-old Norwegian girl dreamt that the house she was in was on fire. She put on a pair of thin boots. She did not warn her relatives of the fire (note her mother was not in the house, as the girl was with an aunt). She unlocked the font door to get out. According to the report, apart from the boots she was wearing only panties and the weather was cold with a strong wind.
She was reported to the police by locals in a nearby town at 06:30 in the morning, with the aunt unaware she was missing. The girl had walked a distance of 5km, or around 3 miles, before other people noticed.
Did Madeleine simply wander off? I thought this idea was ridiculous until I read the article above.
Apartment 5A was anything but secure. Read Madeleine by height and Madeleine by weight on this blog and you’ll see the evidence that she was tall enough and strong enough to have opened the shutter on the children’s bedroom and climbed out.
Kate is dismissive of the idea that Madeleine walked out the rear door, the patio door that she was familiar going in and out of. This is based on Kate’s book, that the gate to the street was closed, the baby gate at the top of the stairs was closed and that the patio doors were closed, and that no four-year-old would do this. I am in agreement that I have not met a 4-year-old who would be this tidy. I cannot yet find any evidence statement that supports the description of the gate to the street, the baby gate and the patio door.
Kate, in her book “Madeleine” does not seem to consider the possibility that Madeleine may have opened the bedroom window and shutter herself. Or that Madeleine may have walked out the front door, as the Norwegian girl did.
Let’s go back to the evidence. Madeleine disappeared whilst wearing pyjamas but no shoes, quite unlike the Norwegian girl. The weather was not clement, but it was better than ‘cold with a strong wind’.
Madeleine was capable of getting out via the bedroom window, probably the front door, and definitely the patio door, which she used frequently.
Here’s the difficulty I have with this theory. If she wandered off, where was it she wandered off to? She was very familiar with the Tapas Restaurant, where she had high tea nearly every day. She was very familiar with her crèche club above the main 24-hour reception. She had a bit less familiarity with the main beach. I believe she had 3 visits, two with Ocean Club, one with the family, using different routes.
Everything in her experience is south of apartment 5A , so if Madeleine simply wandered off, I would expect her to head south. That would be somewhere from her apartment to the beach.
Layer in the local evidence. Human blood, unexplained, found 500m north of 5A outside the villa known as Quinta Dos Figos in Luz, on 6 May 2007. I cannot find anything in the files to suggest Madeleine went north or that the blood is hers. Or who bled on that occasion.
Layer in the Norwegian ‘evidence’. The attached graphic shows the places that are 5km from Luz, but it is as the crow flies, so an explanation is required.
You have to have detailed knowledge of the back routes around Luz to avoid very busy roads. The green circle represents apartment 5A. The red circles are those on the 5km range that would appear to be impossible. The amber circles are reachable, but unlikely.
Can the theory that Madeleine simply wandered off be ruled out?
I would rate this theory as extremely low probability except for the Norwegian girl’s experience and the human blood near Quinta Dos Figos.
It is an unfortunate truth that a sub-set of people in Luz will drive when they are bladdered to the extent of having difficulty standing up straight. So a low possibility solution is that Madeleine got out of the apartment, wandered north for some unknown reason, and came out of a daze to realise she did not know where she was. In a panic she stepped into the road to get help from an on-coming car. The driver was drunk and failed to stop in time. The driver helped Madeleine to the pavement where she bled for a short while, before the driver decided to put her in the car and take her to hospital. She died on the way, and the drunk decided the best way forward was to dispose of her body.
The probability is that the blood is simply from someone who tripped over on loose cobbles outside Quinta Dos Figos and it has nothing to do with Madeleine. Knowing this for certain would reduce the probability that Madeleine simply wandered off to almost zero.
The blood outside Quinta Dos Figos has been referred to Operation Grange, the current Scotland Yard investigation, and hopefully they have better evidence than I have.