Madeleine – v Peter Mac’s weather

A potential source for the weather chart in Richard D Hall’s video – When Madeleine Died? – is a Peter Mac thread on CMoMM, so the question is how well does the weather chart of Peter Mac match the weather in and around Luz when Madeleine vanished?

The weather charts I used previously for Sagres and Faro were interesting, but they were completely the wrong format, so they were not the source.

Peter Mac’s chart, or at least the one I have seen, covers a single day, the 3rd of May 2007. Here it is.

PeterMac Weather for the last day Jill H t3645p75 compos10

And I have now located a source that produces charts in the same format – at weatherspark.com. So here is the chart for 3 May 2007 from weatherspark.com.

 

Weather Faro 3 May 2007 WeatherSpark 3 May only

 

As you can see, there are samenesses and differences, and both need to be covered in order to be sure of what is going on.

First, the differences.

Quite clearly the maximum temperature recorded on my chart, at 31C, is much higher than that on Peter Mac’s chart, at 27C. Is this a game stopper? Peter Mac picked up the chart at one point back in time, while I picked up my version today. There has been weather in between, and judging by the charts, some very warm weather.

This same variance applies to all the averaged lines. They should be roughly the same shape. They do not need to be identical.

Now for the likenesses.

Measurements which are absolutes and refer only to 3 May 2007 should not change. They happened in real life on 3 May 2007.

The two things on my chart which are absolutes are the temperature line and the wind direction/speed.

Please note, the temperature values picked out by the software are a bit of a distraction. At Peter Mac’s time of lookup, the software may have selected a group of points called set A, whereas what I got was set B. So some of the points selected differ. But as far as I can see, where set A matches set B, the values are identical, as they should be. Please make up your own mind.

This leaves us with the general shape of the temperature line. This should be identical in both charts. In my opinion it is. Does it look that way to you?

Then there is the information on wind speed and direction. Again, it should be identical in both charts. Again, IMO, it is. Again, please make up your own mind.

Beyond all reasonable doubt, I believe that I have found the provenance to Peter Mac’s chart for the weather in Luz on 3 May 2007.

The source is accredited to someone in Luz, according to weatherspark.com. And according to weatherspark.com, that is the weather for Faro on 3 May 2007, as was pointed out by Carana on Miscarriage of Justice.

The next question that puzzled me was why not use Sagres, instead of Faro? The answer is simple. Weatherspark.com does not have the data for Sagres at this point in time. You get your pick of Faro, miles to the East of Luz, or Beja, miles to the NE of Luz.

What you don’t get is local to Luz. But fear not. I think something can still be rescued from this wreck.

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