Madeleine – Luz weather 1

A recent video about Madeleine’s disappearance led me to a consideration of the weather in Luz in the week around the incident.

This gets you the weather for Sagres, The date is 3 May 2007. A little tinkering will get you Faro, and you can get weekly charts for both. Note the weekly chart starts on certain dates only, so I am using 29 Apr 2007 to 5 May 2007 as a simple way to cover most of the time Madeleine was in Luz.

Sagres is 21km or 13miles WSW of Luz. To ‘get’ weather from Sagres in Luz it requires W or WSW wind direction.

Faro is 68km or 42 miles, and is basically due E of Luz. To ‘get’ weather from from Faro in Luz, it requires E wind.

Let’s look at Faro first, using Sunday 29 April to Saturday 5 May.

Weather Faro 29 Apr 07 to 5 May 2007

There is no need to go into detail. The wind direction that week was never easterly. Mainly it was westerly or had a westerly component, meaning Faro was ‘getting’ its weather from Luz much of the time, with the wind speed allowing us to calculate how far behind Luz, typically 3 hours plus.

Let’s look at Sagres, again using 29 April to 5 May. Remember, to make Sagres a useful predictor of Luz weather, the wind needs to be W or WSW.

Weather Sagres 29 Apr 07 to 5 May 2007

The chart shows the wind to be a bit of a mix when using it for Luz. Quite often there is a northerly component, suggesting Luz weather would be coming from inland rather than Sagres. At other times it does fit W or WSW.

The period of best fit is mid-Tuesday to the end of Wednesday. There was enough rain in Luz on Wednesday morning to get the tennis lessons cancelled, so what shows up for daily Sagres weather in the period?

Sunday 29 0.2mm, Monday 0mm, Tuesday 0.6mm, Wednesday 3.0mm, Thursday 0mm, Friday 0mm, Saturday 0mm. The chart does not show if the rain on Tue/Wed was in one chunk, in dribs and drabs, or the time of day it rained. If that rain headed to Luz, it should have turned up around 40 mins later, based on wind speed and direction. Of course, it could simply be a coincidence that there was rain in both Sagres and Luz on that Wednesday.

Faro had no rain that week, even though on Wednesday the wind was basically in the right direction to carry it from Luz to Faro.

The format of the charts does not match the format I am looking for, so there must be another source.

Importantly, there is no breakdown of cloud cover or when during the day it was sunny.


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