When I first considered the idea of a burglary gone wrong in apartment 5A I rejected it within seconds. That was on the basis that a burglar does not kill or kidnap a child.
Then some stories emerged in the news, whether true or false. These stories pose unusual cases of a burglary gone wrong.
Those are the exceptions, the ones that do not fit into normal, rational human thinking.
So what, precisely, is the evidence for a burglary gone wrong. Or otherwise?
Is there any scenario whatsoever in which a burglary gone wrong fits the known facts?
One key advantage of the burglary gone wrong theorem is that it does not need to have a man wandering around Luz carrying Madeleine McCann. There is no reason to force it to fit the Jane Tanner sighting or the Smith sighting. It is much easier for a local person to pop Madeleine into a car or van and drive off.
Another key advantage in a scenario in which Madeleine is dead is that someone with local knowledge and local resources would find it easy to dispose of the body. In contrast, the McCanns, lacking both local knowledge and local resources would find disposal of a body to be a major challenge.
I don’t intend to waste any time in trawling through the multiplicity of ways in which a local could dispose of a body. The Algarve has acres of concrete, more reservoirs than anyone could search and numerous other ways of getting rid of Madeleine McCann, and I can’t prove or disprove most of them.
So, can I come up with an explanation of a burglary gone wrong that makes any sense whatsoever?
At the moment; I have four contenders, three from the media and one of my own.
1) The burglar was age 16 at the time, therefore not a fully developed rational adult.
2) The burglar was a schizophrenic.
3) The burglar was someone known to Madeleine, as in an Ocean Club driver.
4) Madeleine had evidence that would convict a burglar, e.g. DNA, therefore she had to be physically removed from 5A.