Means. Motive and Opportunity. And Evidence.

Means, motive and opportunity are considered necessary for a criminal court case, but not sufficient. That requires evidence, (i.e. proof), to pass the ‘beyond all reasonable doubt’ test.

I have read of 4 categories of theories for Madeleine’s disappearance. If you can think of a different category, please leave a comment, as that would deserve consideration.

  1. Madeleine got out of the flat on her own and then somehow disappeared.

  2. It was a burglary that went wrong.

  3. It was a planned abduction.

  4. One or both parents of Madeleine are involved in covering up a crime in flat 5A, whether that involves death, and whether that death was accidental or not.

There are other theories floating about on the Internet that seem to not fit these categories at first glance, but what happens on closer inspection?

A burglary that turned into an abduction, whether or not Madeleine was harmed inside the apartment, is still a burglary that went wrong. The aim was burglary, not abduction, otherwise it would be a planned abduction.

Could Matthew Oldfield have been involved? If so, that would fall into either a planned abduction, or one or or both of the McCanns covering up. For the avoidance of doubt, I am not suggesting that Matthew Oldfield was involved, merely that this is a hypothesis that has to be evaluated.

Could it be much wider? I have read the hypothesis that the document signing Madeleine out of the afternoon crèche is a forgery, which certainly goes much wider. It still fits category 4, that one or actually both parents would have to be involved in a cover-up.

Could it be simpler? Perhaps the trio of children was too much for Kate, so around 10pm on 3rd May she passed Madeleine through the apartment window to a childless, grateful couple outside, and has regretted it ever since. For the avoidance of doubt, I am not saying this is what happened, merely that is has to be put to the test of means, motive, opportunity and evidence. This falls into category 4, covering up a crime in flat 5A. I am not aware of any law that makes it a crime to give your child away, however telling the police that it was an abduction would be a crime in itself, therefore it fits into the covering up a crime category.

If you have read any other theories, apart from aliens, comments and links are welcome.

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2 thoughts on “Means. Motive and Opportunity. And Evidence.

  1. Hi there- nice blog. Read the lot… you’ve some good pieces herein. I think there is one other option- that of the pre-planned attack by a lone paedophile that was not planning an abduction.

    Take, for example, the suspect that was actively attacking female children from the UK in and around the area at the time, with a dozen or so known suspected attempts at abuse, and 5 cases of sexual abuse, which were reported to the PJ, but were brushed under the carpet until re-reported to UK police.

    I think there is a possibility that the checks on the children were not as regular as reported, but in any case, said paedophile reportedly attempted sexual assaults with parents/guardians next door, so if the checking routine is as described, he is not the kind of pervert that would necessarily be put off but the risk of getting caught.

    It’s only a possibility, but is more likely than some of the others (botched burglary leading to murder). If a paedophile had attempted sexual abuse and then attempted to subdue the poor child, for example, he could accidentally have murdered her, and panicked, taking the corpse with him. It would make a get-away infinitely more difficult, but the crime far more difficult to solve.

    So, in short, I’d add the possibility of a lone paedophile that had not planned an abduction to the list. And I’d have that and your number 3 as the most likely, through a process of elimination.

    Let me know what you think. All the best.

    • Hi, Stephen.

      Whether this fits into my 4 categories or not is relatively unimportant. What is more important is that you are correct, I definitely do have to take into account the possibility of such an attack where abduction was not the intention. Therefore I will.

      Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

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